The Surge?

Bob Woodward of "All the President's Men" fame has a new book coming out in which he portrays the effects of the "Surge" as not quite being the successful juggernaut as we've all heard about time and time again.. In fact, the Surge did help at least in part -- but as Bob correctly displays there were two other major components that went into the success of downward violence in Iraq:

1.) Redeploying did help quell the surge in parts of Iraq
2.) The Anbar Awakening movement which called for Sunnis to turn against Al Qaeda
3.) Al Sadr calling for a halt to violence by his Mahdi army

So while the White House spin-meisters try to say that the surge enable the other two parts from happening .. again .. shows of their gross incompetence to understanding the volatility of the region and what the absence of power in Iraq has done to the Middle East..

The fact that there is a very prominent Shia population remains un-noticed is incredibly unfortunate.. Al Sadr is not done yet -- nor will Iran remain idle during this process.. But you can thank the Republican machine for screwing up the balance in the Middle East.. Way to go boys....

I guess that's why it's important to have someone like Palin in the Veep chair when she touts that she really hasn't paid attention to what has happened in Iraq.... Yeah, that's experience we need {end of sarcasm....}

Gee ... imagine that....

Much like what I've been saying for a long time now: Iraq doesn't want us there any longer than humanly possible..

Fortunately the administration finally realizes this as well..

But there's a line from that story that is very telling -- and very much a stepping stone in the direction I thought this was heading:

"This decision (agreement) is a sovereign one and Iran and other neighboring countries have the right to ask for clarifications. ... There are clear articles (that) say that Iraq will not be used as a launching pad for any aggressive acts against neighboring countries and we already did clarify this."

Why is this relevant?? Because the whole principle behind the "100-year base agreement" issue was to be exactly this: a launch vehicle for the United States against neighboring countries.. Foreign Minister Zebari singled out Iran which is very telling -- there's no shrouded words there -- he's saying: don't worry..

Which is important because?? Iraq and Iran will eventually become close allies..

The country we liberated will side with the axis of evil.....

How's that for a legacy??

Wrong country, wrong war, wrong enemy -- remove enemy -- watch country join larger enemy....

Chess

I realize it's waaay too much to even ask this President anything about chess.. But this is where our commander in chief doesn't have a clue that when you do something - there are repercussions for what you've just done.. Cause and effect... Causality..

And that's something Bush hasn't had to account for too much.. Because anytime he's made a decision about Iraq -- there's been no one to really tell him what the repercussions are.. He has been incredibly spoiled in that regard, but it's apparent that luck is going to give way to his legacy..

IRAQ: The Shia problem.. Yep - he got his boy Saddam out of power - but not one conservative out there has the foresight to understand the Shia problem or have any idea or concept how to resolve it.. Iran is predominantly Shia.. Iraq has a very healthy Shia population.. As things continue to develop between Iran and the rest of the world (who, by the way has a major backer in Russia on their side whom we'll talk about here in just a few) who does Bush think Iraq is going to support when the Iran issue explodes??

And therein lies Bush's first cause and effect problem: the moment he took Saddam out, he immediately destabilized an incredibly complicated and fragile balance of power in the region.. Saddam -- as big as his bark has been -- had nothing.. Why?? Because Saddam had to do what he could to keep Iran at bay.. That's why he fought with the weapons inspectors, that's why he made it seem like he was really a bad dude because otherwise - he had no protection if Iran started pouring their shared border..

Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Syria -- all have interests not to see an expanding Iran.. So - once again: what does Bush think Iraq is going to do when Iran becomes center stage?? We're going to see a true "test" of our alliance with the newly established Iraqi government.. We don't have to look very far - because Iraqi people don't want to see Americans there anymore than they have to.. The whole "hundred year lease" debacle is evidence of that.. It's not unrealistic to expect that at *best* our Iraqi "allies" are going to forbid us access within the borders of their country.. At *worst* they'll take up sides with the Iranians and thumb their collective noses at us..

You don't think that's realistic?? It very much is and that's why Bush and McCain have such a failed view of how the rest of the world operates.. This is why they're playing checkers when they should be playing chess..

RUSSIA

The latest Russian incursion into Georgia is another failed Bush agenda.. Putin made it clear that under no uncertain terms was he happy with the agreement the United States made for the missile defense shield that is right in their backyard.. There was no negotiation, no discussion, we just did it because this administration has a habit of doing things and fail to see the causality of their actions..

Am I suggesting a correlation between the two?? Yes I am.. Because if you remember the justification for the missile shield in the first place -- it wasn't directed at Russia -- oh no -- it was meant for "the other guys.." Never mind the fact that if Russia had done the same thing in Cuba -- you'd expect the same knee jerk reaction by this administration if it was somehow going to affect our sovereignty..

Again - Bush is playing foreign policy using checkers when there's a very clear cause and effect going on as one would expect if they were playing chess..

OTHER ISSUES:

North Korea -- threatened them and eventually relented the moment we discovered that the North Koreans were more interested in maintaining the agreement they had under Clinton -- which brought food into their country -- than being completely disrespected by this administration .... only to arrive back at the place where they wanted to be in the first place..

India -- giving them the nuclear bomb -- then a good deal of our tech jobs by encouraging our companies to relocate their businesses over there ... yeah ... that worked out really well for us.. Pakistan didn't like us that much when we marched into Afghanistan to find Bin Laden ... but they were REALLY unhappy with us when we gave India the bomb.. But once again, this administration doesn't have any foresight muscle in their brains to figure out that they've contributed so much to the decay and destabilization of the region..

So -- let's pull this together.. Instead of planning your strategy 10 moves ahead like chess players do ... we have a foreign policy that is predominantly guided by the checkers mentality of "action, reaction.." That's deeply troubling in a world where we're not going to be the powerhouse we have been.. In fact, many suggest that with the Olympics going on right now, this is China's way of saying: "we're right behind you..."

And the scary thing is: they are..

So instead of leading the league of nations that look to us as a major superpower, we floundered and squandered incredible opportunities that would've kept us ahead for years to come.. In the whole host of issues we face as a nation -- our handling of our world relations is even more important now that we have to correct the wrong doings of this administration..

Exactly how many free passes does this man get??

"All we need is a little more faith..."

All we need to do is trust our President..

All we need to do is trust his judgment..

All we have to do ..... is have a little more faith..

*sighs*

We blindly followed this man as he and his administration wove the most elaborate P.R. message to further their respective causes.. Where did that leave us??

- I've already blogged about the fact that Bush's unilateral policies have set forth the way science is considered in our country.. Religion is now considered an equal to science -- even though there doesn't appear to be any schematics for the electron so that we could develop electronics.. And I didn't really notice if there were any step by step instructions on how to build a gas-powered motor -- nor do I see it written anywhere that we should be justified for choosing our wars so that we protect our national interests..

- So it's no mystery that Bush once again - chose to unilaterally dismiss the U.N. demand for climate change.. After all, it's not written in the Bible that we should be worried about it -- we're not in the middle of a locust storm or anything like that, so why worry??

- And the saber rattling continues against Iran.. Bush and Cheney continue to concoct a war plan to invade Iran.. And remember, all we need is a little more faith and trusting the blind leading us into yet - another precarious regional conflict in an area WE'RE ALREADY HATED......

- But thank God we have the likes of Admiral William Fallon who honestly believes that invading Iran is a really big mistake.. "It seems to me that we don't need more problems. It astounds me that so many pundits and others are spending so much time yakking about this topic [of war against Iran]."

So please forgive me if I continue to not ride on the coat tails of faith that so many people seem to have for this administration..

I'm glad we have people of REASON and RATIONALE that are willing to address the problems we continually face.. Regardless if it's about the environment, regardless if it's about Iraq, Iran or privacy..

Are we seriously meant to believe that Jesus sat down with Bush to give him his marching orders to go into Iraq?? Do we honestly think that Jesus would be so profoundly blind about the plight of the people of the Sudan in the Darfur?? Are we expected to believe that it's in God's plan for us to invade Iran now too??

Is it really rational to believe that it's God's will for America to reign supreme -- almost in complete defiance of the teachings of the Bible to begin with the basic principle of brotherhood and thy fellow neighbor??

No -- I really don't think that's the case either..

And that's I've started to have faith in an America that continues to wake up from its slumber ... so that we can correct the extreme errant course this administration has set out for our country..

That's the faith I choose to believe in.. I just hope others follow..

A Victory??

The administration just might have averted another conflict - in what can only be described as a game of chicken - and the other guy blinked..

The Iranian President, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad - has made some really interesting overtures in the last few days about how his country is willing to negotiate.. This after a circulated letter was quickly condemned by Condi Rice and Bush as almost "much ado about nothing.."

Did Cowboy diplomacy work?? Did the threats actually convince the Iranian President to change his tune??

Historically, the general public has no idea what is said, bartered or negotiated behind the scenes of most deals.. Whether we're talking about a senate bill, a treaty, or even a contract with a company.. There's a declaration and the press takes the news and sends it on its way without pouring over the details, the back room deals.. Historically, people change their tune because something was worked out, an agreement was reached..

So while I am grateful that it looks as though we've averted another conflict, I'm really wondering what exactly happened behind the scenes that changed Ahmadinejad's mood.. The Russians and Chinese have been working out deals and potential agreements with the Iranian government - a way to keep the peace, so to speak..

I'm certain the administration is disappointed on one hand - because their foreign policy has been failing all around them.. Bombing Iran would have given them some legitimacy at a time when they needed gain respect.. Unfortunately for this administration the art of diplomacy is completely impotent and driven by pure ego.. The cowboy mentality of "shoot first, ask questions later" couldn't be more true than what has happened in Iraq..

I'm hopeful the ego on Pennsylvania Ave. wakes up and realizes exactly how difficult the world is to govern.. We've been isolated long enough - and we need international support if we're going to have any success in combatting world-wide terror..

There's a reason why Bush is not respected - and there's a reason why this administration can't see the forest for the trees because it's incapable of getting of it's high horse and look around.. Get off the horse, George.. See what world-wide cooperation is all about...

Dangerous Roads

Just some of several dangerous roads in the weeks/months to come:

+ A Utah Theater cancels it's showings of "Brokeback Mountain.." Now.. I know that "Fahrenheit 9/11" was not shown in some theaters.. Much for the same reason that Brokeback Mountain isn't: selected theater owners believe that they have the right to show (or not show) whatever content that they choose to..

Okay - for a minute, I'll agree with that notion.. That as a business owner, you can ultimately decide what you do with your business.. Seems fair enough -- except when the theater owner has a contract with the distributor who is putting out the movie.. Make a business decision should be the right of every small business.. Going back on your agreement, litigate it in court.. But to deny showing a movie solely based on your personally held beliefs is morally reprehensible..

I haven't seen the movie..

I have a general idea of what it's about..

And I'm disappointed that the theater owner is so prejudiced that he can't seem to work beyond his personal flaws.. I can say that in my life I was placed in the same position as he was -- making a controversial decision in almost an identical fashion.. I had a flood of pressure that in turn - forced me to make a decision.. I chose to show a movie that several tried to convince me that was inappropriate.. Good, bad or indifferent - I let the audience make its own informed decision about the movie.. Regardless of the outcome, I felt I made the right choice - and that was all I was concerned about.. I didn't let my personal feelings affect the responsible decision I made about letting the populace decide what was, or wasn't right..

The point is: the movie is released with the seal from the Motion Picture industry attached.. It's deemed appropriate and affixed a proper rating shield on it.. The public deserves to make the choice for themselves.. I sincerely doubt this owner chided away from King Kong on the basis that it's about a fake ape and hence, was unrealistic......

+ Iran, Sharon & Israel.. I hope that Prime Minister Sharon has a full recovery.. Afterall, he has played an integral, unpopular position in the Middle East peace process.. Something of which I hope the Palestinians leadership realizes so that there aren't any rash decisions in Sharon's absence.. While I continue to have grave concerns about the peace process, Sharon really did go out on a limb by the pullout of Gaza.. He's hated by Israel and by the Palestinians.. But he's making peace in a world that has a really hard time making peace..

But I laud Iran's lead guy's position that the Holocaust didn't happen.. Wow.. That's pretty bold considering he just built up a nuclear weapons program under Bush's watch without so much of a nugget of pressure from the White House.. Weapons of Mass Destruction, George?? Remember??

+ Alito's hearings are set to begin -- and it's one of those situations where I just shrug and move on.. I have no doubt that he will be confirmed and we'll have swung a very large pendulum too far in the other direction.. While I read about the detractors that continually reveal that Alito will set the nation back 40 years - I simply do not know if I agree.. Obviously it would've been better to have a swing vote like O'Connor, but admittedly Sandra Day was not well liked by the Republicans..

So to preserve "their way" of thinking, they want someone he exceeds well and beyond Scalia..... And Alito seems to fit that bill.. All of a sudden, Bush's first pick didn't seem that bad now, did it?? Remember what I said then, Democrats: "be careful what you wish for....." And viola'.......

Congratulations - we now have tipped this country on its ear......

*shrugs* Life goes on.....

News & Tidbits

No WMD connection to Syria
Hardly a shock really.. Seriously..

Iran?? Saudi Arabia perhaps??

Everyone is SO convinced that Saddam had WMD, if.... and this is again the fruitless attempt at TRYING to remain objective in this whole fucking mess...... *if* there were WMD, they aren't in Syria.. They aren't in Iran.. Anyone with a brain larger than a peanut (apologies to Jimmy Carter) realizes that those weapons are probably in some very distant nation, so far away from all eyes to see....

Which is a problem when you're dealing with such a myopic view of the world.......


Bolton facing issues
Anyone who isn't diplomatic, shouldn't be a diplomat... And if Colin Powell thinks you're going to be a fuck up -- damn, doesn't look good on your resume pal..


Social Security
War between the Dems and the Repubs starting up again.. *yawn* Wake me in 2006, will ya'??


Condi threatening Putin
Bush sent Condoleeza over to Russia to air concerns about how Putin and his party were alarming this administration into some sort of totalitarian regime??

Isn't that what DeLay and other conservatives are doing with their veiled threats about the Justices that need to be replaced and the subsequent threats about replacing the filibuster rules just to satisfy those that they want to seat ... well, we're sounding more communistic each day..


Freedom of Expression or Avoiding a potential conflict...
I heard an Air America story on the way home tonight about some people that were turned away at a Bush rally because they had signs that were not consistent with the majority: i.e. protestors.. The Majority Report was lambasting this administration and the Secret Service for intervening and removing these people who had signs of dissention about their respective point(s) of view.. (I have no idea what the signs said..)

Now..

I'm all in favor of Freedom of Expression, but I'm not in favor when that expression leads to a riot or altercation.. Differing opinions, fine.. Advertise them all you want.. Inciting, provoking or otherwise egging on a fight .... no.. When it may lead to arrests, damage or injury - at what point does Freedom of Expression become a threat to the security of the President?? Regardless if it's Clinton, Bush or someone else?? I think the Secret Service may act as they deem fit to insure a peaceful situation.. They are there to maintain order in whatever setting the President arrives.. That's their function.. I respect that because it's their lives on the line before Dubya's..

But what really got me thinking about the whole Freedom of Expression angle came from a newstory I saw today about how ABC is being threatened by Roger Murdoch and Fox for their portrayal of the smash hit: "American Idol".. Murdoch also owns the Fox News Channel - a seemingly conservative network destined to slant their biases as they see fit.....

Now that their credibility is being put to the fire - *yawns* - but seriously.. When we live at a time when there's the threat of potential lawsuits over the slanted bias of a slanted bias competition -- exactly what in the hell is going on?? I don't watch American Idol because I don't care who sings "My heart will go on" the prettiest.. A talent show; rather a slanted, biased talent show - will always be scandalous in nature..

It's the reality-show phenomenon that no one really understands..

It's the fact that networks are trying to score ratings.. To do so, they will put shows out there that will garner the best ratings for them.. Is it any wonder that there's so much grief after one of the finalists is "robbed" of their potential winnings??

Puh-leeeze....

What's really scary..

What really bothers me more than the "news story" of the "apparent threat from Fox" is the fact that American Idol is produced by the same folks that puts on Fox News.. Hannity and O'Reily all under the same umbrella.. What Murdoch has done with Fox is to be able to control programming - so as to continue to further his causes.. Fox News is the voice, American Idol would be the soul..

But when you look at the programming under Fox - there's a myriad of shows, all interwoven, cut from the same cookie cutter dough pattern that emerges.. It's a completely deceptive machine all controlled by the strings in the hierarchy of the Fox regime.. When that kind of bias is so prevalent, so under the radar, so seemingly invisible, it's remarkable, even a bit impressive that such manipulation was not only controlled, but planned to such a minute degree..

From it's news, it's programs, probably down to the products they endorse -- if it fits the agenda, it's rolled out for our consumption..

Scary isn't a word that doesn't penetrate the surface..

Horrifying..
Terrifying..
Unnerving..

Kinda reminds you of a certain administration's tactics, doesn't it??

The Poll Results are In....

Has anyone picked up on the fact that the the party who's winning the Iraqi elections thus far has ties to IRAN??

Did it dawn on anyone else that if the Shiite leading party wins the election - they will grow close to Iran??

Anyone else wonder how these elections became a "good thing" for the Iraqi people, for the peace and stability in the region, in the efforts to quash those against us ....

.... yet the party that is winning happens to be a noted enemy ever since I've been around...

Elections?? Sure seemed like a good idea at the time.. But I'm not so sure we're going to like the outcome down the road kiddies....